How Likely Are We to Have a White Christmas in IA, IL, and WI?

The older I get, the more tired I get of the snow, as much as I do prefer the cold over the heat. That being said, I secretly long for at least a little bit of snow over the course of the holidays. It amplifies the nostalgia of the period, and also reminds me of those pretty Christmases as a child where there was at least a little of the white stuff on the ground.

Kudos to the National Weather Service, who has a special section of their website dedicated to looking at historical data of "White Christmases" in specific regions. NWS defines a "White Christmas" as "having 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning." Let's look and see how "lucky" Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin has been this time of year.

National Weather Service's Definition and Methodology:

The graphics and table below were created from historical data from NOAA'S National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). It reflects the normal chance, or probability, of a white Christmas based on data from the 1981-2010 three-decade averages. A white Christmas is defined as having 1 inch or more of snow on the ground Christmas morning. The graphics provide a general sense of the likelihood of a white Christmas over the entire country and the Midwest. They are based on the latest (1981-2010) U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center [....] The table is also based only on data from 1981-2010. - per National Weather Service

Dubuque and Surrounding Areas Have Had Many White Christmases:

A look at NWS' data shows that Dubuque specifically has had 14 Christmases (from 1981 - 2010) with 1"/more of snow on the ground Christmas morning with 47 Christmases in total having the "probability" of their being 1'' or more of snow on the ground. The Moline/QC area have had the most with 13/43, respectively, while Cedar Rapids/Marion is tied with Dubuque (14/47).

Additional regions include Burlington (8/27, although they've had more than five Christmases without any snow/a chance); Cascade (15/50), and Iowa City (12/40).

Illinois Has Also Been Fortunate with Christmas Snowfall:

Right behind the Quad Cities region for most snow on Christmas is Freeport, which has had 15 Christmases over the last 30+ years with 1 inch or more of snow on the ground, and 53 total with snow or a probability of it falling. Geneseo has had 13/43, respectively, and Kewanee with 8/27 (but also 7 Christmases without any snowfall at all).

Wisconsin Christmases Appear to Be Common in Wisconsin Too:

While there is no exact data for specific Wisconsin locations (at least that I could find), NWS' graphic shows that the southern Wisconsin region has flirted with a 50% chance of a White Christmas from 1981 - 2010. In so many words, a White Christmas is a coin flip in the Cheese State.

Go further north, and you'll see that a White Christmas is all-but-a-certainty, with various regions having a 76% or greater chance at snow at Christmastime. The northeastern region of the state actually has anywhere from a 91-100% chance too.

View the Full White Christmas Map of the Tri-States:

View the full data on White Christmases for Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin on the National Weather Service's website.